NFL Predictions 2010

As I sit here typing, it is 65 degrees, overcast and breezy outside. It is obvious that football season has arrived. And with it come my annual football predictions. I like to stress a couple things before I roll these out.

First, the NFL is by far the hardest professional sports league to predict for a number of reasons. The season is short, injuries play a huge factor, the salary structure allows for parody and there is a lot of luck involved. It is the complete opposite as the joke known as Major League Baseball where I picked the Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cardinals and Giants this year to win their divisions. All of those teams are in first or second place. As great of a football mind as I am (sorry I’m a little cocky with that statement), I can guarantee you that I will be wrong on some of these because unlike Major League Baseball, every NFL team has a chance going into the season. You can’t buy championships in the NFL. The commissioner and players union actually care about the fans. And NFL fans aren’t as ignorant to competitiveness as baseball fans.

Okay, second somewhat relates to the first point. The last seven years, at least one team has gone from last place in its division to making the playoffs. Often times there have been two. On average, only half of the eight division winners from the previous year go on to repeat as division champs. So many NFL talking heads fall into the trap of thinking that the twelve playoff teams from a year ago are the clear favorites to make it again the following year. It’s hard to fault them when you look at their reasoning. These teams did go to the playoffs last year so they were good. But history tells us that there will be teams that surprise us.

So here I go with my picks for 2010.

AFC East
Patriots. Never count out teams with really good quarterbacks.
Jets. I am not buying into the hype, but this team does have a great defense.
Dolphins. I would not be surprised if they finish ahead of the Jets. I’m having a hard time judging them.
Bills. Young team that could have a bright future. Division is too tough for them to be good this year.

AFC North
Ravens. Joe Flacco is the real deal. Their offense might be better than their defense.
Browns. This is one of those picks where you’re wondering what I’m smoking. But again, it’s the NFL.
Bengals. At some point the T.O. experiment will not work.
Steelers. Losing Big Ben at the start hurts. They lack the rough and tough aura they had a few years ago.

AFC South
Colts. Same thing I said about New England. Peyton Manning is still on top of his game.
Texans. If luck goes their way, they could win this division. But I think this is the year they breakout.
Titans. Much like the Dolphins. It’s a hard team to read. So much rests on Vince Young’s performance.
Jaguars. They’re in a tough division. They will pull off some upsets but lack the talent to win a lot.

AFC West
Chargers. Still very potent on offense but by far the weakest division winner in the bunch.
Raiders. Becoming a defensive force in this league. Might still be a year away from playoffs.
Chiefs. Another team in this division that has turned the corner. Could be another pleasant surprise.
Broncos. Too many injuries and defections. Tim Tebow might be starting by the end of the year.

NFC East
Redskins. What? I’m not picking Dallas. If Donovan McNabb remains healthy, watch out!
Cowboys. This team never lives up to potential. Tony Romo lacks that big game mentality.
Eagles. I think Kolb could be a star in this league but he needs a year to get his feet wet.
Giants. This division is so difficult to pick. I could see the Giants finishing second with a little luck.

NFC North
Packers. Aaron Rodgers has a breakout season. Offense will be this team’s best defense.
Vikings. Adrian Peterson will be the MVP of the team this year. Not Brett Favre.
Lions. Stafford to Johnson might be the most prominent connection in the league this year.
Bears. Jay Cutler is not the answer. It could be a very long season.

NFC South
Falcons. Good one year, not so good the next. It’s their year to be good again.
Saints. Drew Brees may have surpassed Manning as the best quarterback in the NFL.
Buccaneers. I really like this team to turn the corner this year. Freeman might be for real.
Panthers. Lots of changes in Carolina means a lot of losses.

NFC West
49ers. It’s the fashionable pick, but honestly who else are you going to take? They win by default.
Cardinals. Needs their defense to take it up a notch because offense will not be the same without Warner.
Seahawks. An offense that can be competitive but has very little defense.
Rams. I feel sorry for Sam Bradford. With that offensive line, it’s going to be David Carr all over again.

Playoffs:
AFC Wildcard:
Texans over Chargers
Colts over Browns

NFC Wildcard:
Vikings over 49ers
Saints over Redskins

AFC Divisional Round:
Ravens over Texans
Colts over Patriots

NFC Divisional Round:
Packers over Saints
Falcons over Vikings

AFC Championship Game:
Ravens over Colts

NFC Championship Game:
Falcons over Packers

Super Bowl:
Ravens over Falcons

I’m going back outside to enjoy the football weather. Happy NFL season everybody!

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