Friday, November 5, 2010

Bucks Struggle Early On

The Milwaukee Bucks were a pick by nearly all of us to be a shoe-in for the playoffs. After a surprising run to the number six seed a season ago and a 7-game series with the favored Atlanta Hawks, it seemed like a no brainer that the Deer would return to post season again this year.

It’s early, but it’s not looking too good so far.

After a come from behind victory over the lowly Indiana Pacers, the Bucks are 2-4. This includes a horrific loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that will struggle to win 15 games this year, a pounding at home at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers and a disappointing season opener at New Orleans. Arguably, their best game came in an overtime loss at Boston last Wednesday.

So why, the struggles early on. A lot has been placed on the injuries to John Salmons and Andrew Bogut which prevented the two stars from playing most (or in Salmons’ case all) of the preseason. Chris Douglas -Roberts is still trying to get back after missing preseason as well. A little has been placed on new role players trying to learn Scott Skiles’ intense defensive schemes.

I think these are both accurate assessments to the early season problems. But then it hit me that as nice as some of these off-season acquisitions looked, there is a very terrifying link to all these new players. The new guys are Drew Gooden, Corey Maggette, Keyon Dooling, John Brockman and Chris Douglas-Roberts. Where did these five guys play last year? Gooden was with the Los Angeles Clippers. Maggette was at Golden State. Brockman belonged to Sacramento. And both Dooling and Douglas-Roberts were playing with the New Jersey Nets. The theme? All four of these teams were horrible last year. They all lacked a sense of team. They all, for the exception of Sacramento, underachieved. Talent was abundant, but the players never learned how to make the most of that talent.

Now, here they all are playing with the Milwaukee Bucks, a team that does not have a true all star. Andrew Bogut has had one good season. Brandon Jennings, at this point, simply has potential. And John Salmons is streaky and not a guy you can count on all season long. So now we throw into the mix five guys who are not used to the team concept. They are used to looking out for themselves and putting up individual stats with only a mild concern on how the team does. Add into the mix that they are in Milwaukee, a small market that has struggled mightily the past two decades to be relevant. The combination of all these factors is not good.

Here is the one things I see that this team has going for them early on. The coach is Scott Skiles. I am convinced that Skiles is one of the best coaches in the NBA. He has a way of making something with nothing and a lot with something. Right now he has something. So we’ll see if he can work his magic. And once we get through our preseason which is basically the first two to four weeks of the season, maybe this team can start winning again and be a factor in the East.

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Saturday, October 30, 2010

Packer-Viking Recap

I came away with many thoughts and opinions after the latest installment of Packers/Vikings:

And I lead with this because it’s the most important of all my thoughts and opinions. The NFL is as about as unpredictable as it comes. And everything I mention from here on out in this rant, could easily be as far from the truth as possible by next week.

Both of these football teams have a ton of weaknesses. The Packers have so many injuries that they should be holding open tryouts on a daily basis across Wisconsin to see if anyone can help them out.

The Vikings are the most underachieving team in the league, and I blame most of that on the coach who is so bent on running his system that he doesn’t have the vision of how to use his players the best way.

This was an extremely entertaining game. The ebb and flow combined with the story lines and last minute finish were spectacular.

Oh, and of course throw in the absolutely pathetic officiating. And by the way Viking fans, it didn’t just work against you. Let me just mention a few bad calls that went AGAINST the Packers in this game: the late hit by Nick Collins was not late. He made the hit in bounds. The interception at the end of the first half in the end zone might have been caught had Greg Jennings not been mugged running his route down the sideline and yet no pass interference or holding was called. The spot after a third down pass to Jennings before the Vikings last drive was horrendous. It should have been first down, but instead it was fourth down. The Packers failed to pick it up and there began the final Viking drive. On one of the Adrian Peterson’s 20-year gallops on the last drive, there was a blatant block in the back that sprang Peterson on a cut back move. There were more, but I’ll stop there.

Mike McCarthy needs to run the ball more. Brandon Jackson may be a below average NFL running back, but like any running back in this league, if you give him 20-plus carries, he is going to start picking up more and more yardage as the game goes along, especially when you are winning in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

Brett Favre is amazing and yet a shell of himself. He almost pulled this game out. But he can’t move in the pocket and is back to throwing interceptions this year. When you throw in the terrible coaching, I don’t think he can succeed in this system anymore.

Back to the Packer injury situation. Frank Zambo was playing defensive end during the fourth quarter. Zambo is a rookie backup linebacker. But because of the Packers injury epidemic and the front office’s refusal to do anything about it, Zambo actually helped lead the Packers to victory.

Clay Matthews is the difference maker in this defense. With Matthews and the return of Al Harris and Atari Bigby, this defense may be able to salvage the season.

At the moment, I don’t see either of these teams contending for anything this year, but as they say, championships aren’t won in October in the NFL.

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Monday, October 25, 2010

Badgers-Best 1-Loss Team in the Country

What an impressive two-week run for the Wisconsin Badgers. Back to back wins over then #1 Ohio State and then at a very good Iowa squad has me somewhat in shock. I don’t remember back to back wins in such impressive fashion since the Rose Bowl days of a decade ago.

The best part about both wins is that neither was a fluke. Against Ohio State, we absolutely dominated the Buckeyes. The Badgers ran the ball at will and controlled the line of scrimmage. And when Ohio State made a run in the second half, the Badgers responded by putting together a long scoring drive that eliminated any chance of Ohio State coming back to win.

Then against Iowa, the Badgers found themselves in a back and forth affair in which the Badgers could have folded at any time. The most impressive moment actually came after a Scott Tolzien interception early in the fourth quarter with Iowa up by 3. Then the defense rose to the occasion stopping the Hawkeyes and holding them to a field goal. The Badger offense then responded with a very impressive drive which included a fake punt for a first down and a 4th down conversion. The drive took seven of the last eight minutes off the clock and resulted in a game winning touchdown.

Now here we are with four games left in the season, and the Badgers are 7-1 and in my opinion are the best 1-loss team in the country. When the BCS rankings came out last Sunday unfortunately, the computers and voters did not completely agree. They rated both Alabama and Oklahoma slightly ahead of Wisconsin. I don’t think either team had a legitimate reason to rank higher than the Badgers. Oklahoma’s lone win over a ranked team came at home to Florida State. They lost to Missouri and barely squeaked out wins over Utah State, Air Force, Cincinnati and Texas. Alabama owns two wins over ranked teams, Arkansas and LSU. They lost to South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin owns the most impressive wins of either team. They have the Ohio State and Iowa victories. And they played Michigan State tough in their loss. I could see an argument to put Alabama ahead of Wisconsin, but not Oklahoma or any other one-loss team. In my opinion, the Badgers should be #8 in the BCS, behind the seven undefeated teams.

Regardless, if the Badgers win out, they should make a BCS bowl. An 11-1 record out of the Big Ten should do it. Even if Michigan State goes undefeated and wins the conference, the Badgers should go as an at-large

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Packers Roll Past Bills

It’s time for my weekly Green Bay Packer update. Week Two was a 34-7 victory by the green and gold over the Buffalo Bills. The Packers jumped on top early scoring on their first three drives and holding the Bills to two three-and-outs. The Bills came back in the second quarter to close to within 13-7 at halftime. But the Packers took over in the second half with three straight touchdown drives and impressive defensive plays en route to the easy win.

Here are the plusses in the win:
Aaron Rodgers looked a lot better than last week as he spread the ball around and took what the defense gave him.
Clay Matthews is the defensive player of the year after two weeks. He has six sacks, a number of tackles and makes big play after big play.
Special teams was not as impressive as last week but they didn’t have any bone headed plays and held up fairly nicely.
Jermichael Finley is yet to get into the endzone but 100-yard games aren’t common amongst tight ends.
Whatever adjustments were made at halftime were perfect as the team came out and completely dominated the last 30 minutes.
Interceptions by Chillar and Burnett sparked the offensive onslaught in the third quarter.

Here are the negatives:
The running game did not do much. Even in the fourth quarter when the Packers were just trying to run down the clock, they couldn’t sustain anything. John Kuhn looked better than Brandon Jackson.
Chad Clifton is hurting. Thankfully we have a quality backup in our number one draft pick Bryan Bulaga.
This was probably the easiest game on the schedule and we failed to put this team away early due to settling for field goals on the first two drives and giving up way too many rushing yards in the second quarter.

So the Packers are 2-0 and tied with the Bears for first place in the NFC North as the two teams prepare for battle on Monday night. The really good news is that the Vikings are 0-2 after a loss at home to the Dolphins in which Brett Favre threw for three interceptions and fumbled the ball in the end zone. This is the Brett Favre we saw two or three times a year in Green Bay. It’s good to see him returning to form this year in Minnesota. And hey Dallas: how does it feel to be 0-2? It’s nice to quiet down the Cowboy fans!

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Sunday, September 12, 2010

Packers-Eagles Game Recap

It’s time for my weekly Green Bay Packer update. Week One was a 27-20 victory by the green and gold over the Philadelphia Eagles. It was a physical game that featured very good defense by both teams and a ton of injuries and penalties. The latter was luckily only sustained by the Eagles which played a role in the Packers coming out on top.

Here are the plusses in the win:
Aaron Rodgers was not sharp but did a great job doing what he needed to do to put points on the board.
Brandon Jackson showed what he did during the preseason filling in for Ryan Grant in this game. I don’t know if we’ll see a step back in the running game if he has to continue playing.
Clay Matthews is a beast.
Hardly any penalties. There’s a change from last year.
Special teams was very good. When’s the last time we could say that about a Packer team. Jordy Nelson was rockin’ on kick returns. Mason Crosby nailed a team-record long 56-yard field goal. And our punter was even good!
We won on the road against a fairly good team.

Here are the negatives:
The secondary is going to struggle if the Packers have to play a mobile running back, especially one that can throw accurately unlike Michael Vick.
Injuries were not good. Justin Harrell is probably out for the year with a knee injury. Cullen Jenkins broke his hand. That won’t keep him out but will hinder his play. Nick Collins has bruised ribs. And then the Ryan Grant ankle injury which will probably keep him out or at the very least limited for awhile.
Our offensive line was inconsistent.
Aaron Rodgers seemed rattled.

But, we are 1-0 and are coming home for a good team to face when you are battered. Buffalo is not very good. Hopefully Grant and Collins can heal up.

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Friday, September 3, 2010

NFL Predictions 2010

As I sit here typing, it is 65 degrees, overcast and breezy outside. It is obvious that football season has arrived. And with it come my annual football predictions. I like to stress a couple things before I roll these out.

First, the NFL is by far the hardest professional sports league to predict for a number of reasons. The season is short, injuries play a huge factor, the salary structure allows for parody and there is a lot of luck involved. It is the complete opposite as the joke known as Major League Baseball where I picked the Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cardinals and Giants this year to win their divisions. All of those teams are in first or second place. As great of a football mind as I am (sorry I’m a little cocky with that statement), I can guarantee you that I will be wrong on some of these because unlike Major League Baseball, every NFL team has a chance going into the season. You can’t buy championships in the NFL. The commissioner and players union actually care about the fans. And NFL fans aren’t as ignorant to competitiveness as baseball fans.

Okay, second somewhat relates to the first point. The last seven years, at least one team has gone from last place in its division to making the playoffs. Often times there have been two. On average, only half of the eight division winners from the previous year go on to repeat as division champs. So many NFL talking heads fall into the trap of thinking that the twelve playoff teams from a year ago are the clear favorites to make it again the following year. It’s hard to fault them when you look at their reasoning. These teams did go to the playoffs last year so they were good. But history tells us that there will be teams that surprise us.

So here I go with my picks for 2010.

AFC East
Patriots. Never count out teams with really good quarterbacks.
Jets. I am not buying into the hype, but this team does have a great defense.
Dolphins. I would not be surprised if they finish ahead of the Jets. I’m having a hard time judging them.
Bills. Young team that could have a bright future. Division is too tough for them to be good this year.

AFC North
Ravens. Joe Flacco is the real deal. Their offense might be better than their defense.
Browns. This is one of those picks where you’re wondering what I’m smoking. But again, it’s the NFL.
Bengals. At some point the T.O. experiment will not work.
Steelers. Losing Big Ben at the start hurts. They lack the rough and tough aura they had a few years ago.

AFC South
Colts. Same thing I said about New England. Peyton Manning is still on top of his game.
Texans. If luck goes their way, they could win this division. But I think this is the year they breakout.
Titans. Much like the Dolphins. It’s a hard team to read. So much rests on Vince Young’s performance.
Jaguars. They’re in a tough division. They will pull off some upsets but lack the talent to win a lot.

AFC West
Chargers. Still very potent on offense but by far the weakest division winner in the bunch.
Raiders. Becoming a defensive force in this league. Might still be a year away from playoffs.
Chiefs. Another team in this division that has turned the corner. Could be another pleasant surprise.
Broncos. Too many injuries and defections. Tim Tebow might be starting by the end of the year.

NFC East
Redskins. What? I’m not picking Dallas. If Donovan McNabb remains healthy, watch out!
Cowboys. This team never lives up to potential. Tony Romo lacks that big game mentality.
Eagles. I think Kolb could be a star in this league but he needs a year to get his feet wet.
Giants. This division is so difficult to pick. I could see the Giants finishing second with a little luck.

NFC North
Packers. Aaron Rodgers has a breakout season. Offense will be this team’s best defense.
Vikings. Adrian Peterson will be the MVP of the team this year. Not Brett Favre.
Lions. Stafford to Johnson might be the most prominent connection in the league this year.
Bears. Jay Cutler is not the answer. It could be a very long season.

NFC South
Falcons. Good one year, not so good the next. It’s their year to be good again.
Saints. Drew Brees may have surpassed Manning as the best quarterback in the NFL.
Buccaneers. I really like this team to turn the corner this year. Freeman might be for real.
Panthers. Lots of changes in Carolina means a lot of losses.

NFC West
49ers. It’s the fashionable pick, but honestly who else are you going to take? They win by default.
Cardinals. Needs their defense to take it up a notch because offense will not be the same without Warner.
Seahawks. An offense that can be competitive but has very little defense.
Rams. I feel sorry for Sam Bradford. With that offensive line, it’s going to be David Carr all over again.

Playoffs:
AFC Wildcard:
Texans over Chargers
Colts over Browns

NFC Wildcard:
Vikings over 49ers
Saints over Redskins

AFC Divisional Round:
Ravens over Texans
Colts over Patriots

NFC Divisional Round:
Packers over Saints
Falcons over Vikings

AFC Championship Game:
Ravens over Colts

NFC Championship Game:
Falcons over Packers

Super Bowl:
Ravens over Falcons

I’m going back outside to enjoy the football weather. Happy NFL season everybody!

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

Packers Mid-Pre-Season Review

After two preseason games, here is what I have learned about the Green Bay Packers and the upcoming season:

1. The offense is going to be freaky good. Think early 1980’s San Diego Chargers with this passing game.
1a. Aaron Rodgers could very easily be the league MVP
1b. Jermichael Finley is going to be the premiere tight end in the NFL the next five years.
2.Bryan Bulaga is a very huge man.
3. Remember when the Packers went to the Super Bowl in the 1996 and Edgar Bennett was joined by Dorsey Levens to create a two-headed running back monster. Don’t be surprised if this happens again this year with Brandon Jackson joining Ryan Grant. 4. This is a much-improved Brandon Jackson.
5. If the Packers play with second string linebackers and secondary with a vanilla defensive plan like they have the first two games, this team is in trouble.
6. The defensive line needs to become more dominant.
7. The special teams still stinks.
8. Mason Crosby has made three field goals. I’m just saying.
9. The Packers are still looking for their first good punter since Craig Hentrich.
10. Penalties are still an issue.
Preseason games continue to be not much of an indicator of what the regular season will offer up.
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